In the past few years, the blind box industry quietly pulled off something remarkable: it turned uncertainty into a billion-dollar business.
In 2024 alone, Pop Mart, a leading blind box business company, reported around $1.8 billion in revenue, more than doubling the year before, with profits nearly tripling.
Not bad for a company whose core product is not knowing what you’re buying until you open it.
Characters like Labubu, HIRONO, and CRYBABY didn’t just become collectibles. They became emotional investments.
Pop Mart didn’t ask, “Which one do you want?” It asked, “Are you brave enough to find out?”
And millions of people said yes.
Also Read: A Color, Characters & Clicks: Engaging Children Through Design
The Business of Not Knowing
Blind boxes flip traditional commerce on its head.
Normally, consumers want clarity: features, specs, previews. Blind boxes do the opposite. They sell the experience before the outcome.
You don’t pay for certainty.
You pay for the moment right before certainty.
This model creates:
- Repeat purchases (“Maybe the next one,“)
- Emotional spikes (hope, excitement, disappointment, relief)
- Social rituals (unboxing, trading, showing off wins)
What Pop Mart really monetized wasn’t plastic. It was the thrill of the surprise.
Why Would Anyone Spend Money on Something Unknown?
Because uncertainty is not a bug in human psychology.
It’s a feature.
1. Variable Rewards: Dopamine Loves a Mystery
Blind boxes use unpredictable rewards, the same principle that keeps people checking social media or refreshing feeds.
Predictable rewards are nice.
Unpredictable rewards are irresistible.
Every unopened box whispers: What if this one is different? And your brain listens.
2. Completionism: The Pain of the Missing Piece
Blind box collections are designed to be unfinished by default. There’s always one missing figure. One rare variant. One “secret” piece.
An incomplete set is a psychological itch.
And buying “just one more” feels less like spending money and more like resolving tension.
3. Scarcity: Desire Accelerates Under Pressure
Limited editions don’t just feel special, they feel urgent.
Scarcity works because:
- Rare items feel more valuable.
- Time pressure reduces rational thinking.
- Ownership becomes a status signal.
We don’t want things more because they’re better.
We want them more because they might disappear.
4. Social Proof: Joy Multiplies When Witnessed
Blind boxes are rarely opened alone. They’re filmed, posted, traded, flexed.
A rare pull isn’t just luck. It’s content!
Community turns private excitement into public validation, amplifying desire far beyond the individual buyer.
Blind Boxes Are Basically UX in Physical Form
Once you zoom out, Pop Mart’s success starts to look very familiar.
Blind boxes and digital products share the same behavioral playbook:
- Infinite feeds = Endless unboxing
- Streaks and badges = Collection progress
- Limited drops = Scarcity mechanics
- Recommendations = Personalized series
- Social sharing = Communal dopamine
Every refresh is a box. Every notification is a reveal.
UX Lessons Designers Can (Safely) Steal
How can we apply these insights to digital products without crossing ethical lines?
Here is a breakdown of actionable strategies:
1. Cool experiences make the wait feel meaningful.
Don’t rush to the reward. Stretch the moment before it.
Loading states, transitions, and reveals matter because waiting can be designed to feel intentional, not annoying.
2. Surprises are fun, but feeling out of control isn’t.
The magic formula is: unpredictable outcomes + predictable rules.
Users should always understand the system, even if the result varies.
3. Visible progress encourages users to continue.
Progress bars, achievement boards, and streaks work because they show momentum, but also hint at what’s missing. Nothing motivates action like seeing how close you already are.
4. Turn individual use into shared experiences.
Engagement deepens when users can share, compare, or collaborate.
Design for:
- Sharing wins
- Showing progress
- Friendly competition
People don’t just want to win. They want witnesses.
5. Draw the line between delight and exploitation.
Blind boxes also show us where things can go wrong. When surprise feels manipulative, people lose trust quickly.
If users feel tricked instead of delighted, the magic breaks.
Ethical UX means being honest about odds, costs, and value. Especially when money is involved.
Also Read: Show, Don’t Tell: Utilizing Illustrations to Level Up Your UI/UX
Wrapping Up: What’s Really Inside the Box
Pop Mart’s success shows that people aren’t just buying products. They’re buying how those products make them feel.
The anticipation, the reveal, and the story around the moment matter as much as the object itself.
As designers, our lesson isn’t to copy blind boxes, but to understand why they work. Every interaction sets an expectation. Every click makes a promise.
And when design is done well, the experience always feels worth opening.